Speakers

Mr Meisels will be talking about the 40-year cycle. According to him since 1789 the US equity market has experienced six secular cycles. They consist of a secular bull and a secular bear phase and last approximately 40 years. The secular bull consists of numerous (± 4 year) Dunbar Cycles which usually have progressively higher highs and higher lows. The secular bear consists of two Dunbar Cycles, where the second is rarely higher than the first, and where one of the bear phases is significantly worse than the other.

Elliott Wave Theory forces each secular cycle into a larger entity (Supercycle, Grand Supercycle, etc.) whereas one, according to Ron, should look at each separately. Once the two bear markets within the secular bear are completed (most recently in March 2009), the secular bear is over, and a new secular cycle begins. Therefore, there is no reason to maintain that we are still in a secular bear market.