STA Blog

Now a fixture of the STA monthly meeting calendar, January is when we round up three or four candidates and ask them to outline their outlook for financial markets in the coming year. Hosted in conjunction with ACI (FX association), the pitch was a fundamental analyst (Dominic Bunning) sandwiched between two techies (Ron William and Gerry Celaya).

Introduced by Jeff Boccaccio, a member of the STA’s executive committee, and moderated by Gavin Wells of Swap Strategy 360TGTX and part of the ACI team, the speakers were kept on a very tight lead and proceedings started at a sprint. Ron was picked first, maybe because he was the only one wearing a tie, he focused on US stock indices. He briefly outlined his ‘blended approach’ driven by cycles originally created by Robin Griffiths FSTA. He pointed out the low rates, low inflation background and believes we are witnessing a ‘’false V-shaped recovery’’ with the S&P 500 mapping out a broadening top. Rushing through what were too many charts, he oddly predicts US longer-dated yields to spike to 4% or 5%.

Dominic, Head of European FX research at HSBC, unsurprisingly focused on his subject, and because he was working to Chatham House rules, we cannot report the currencies he favoured or wanted to avoid.

Rounded up by ‘‘senior statesman’’ (moderator’s words) Gerry Celaya (in a sweater), of Redtower Asset Management, he explained his tie-up with Logo Tricio whose motto is ‘Your Investment Buddy’. He too tended to focus on FX, where his theme was a stronger US dollar and some emerging markets recovering; ‘’the Turkish lira is potentially the outlier’’. He also suggested one should ‘’buy sterling and wear diamonds’’ – to which Gavin quipped: ‘’traders’ vernacular is creeping in’’. Interestingly he too sees US 10-year Treasury yields rising to 1.7% this year and to 3.3% in two years’ time. When warned he had only two minutes time left for his presentation, he sighed and said: ‘’thank God as it’s my last slide.’’

‘’Gentlemen’’ (for all five participants were male and pale – though mercifully not stale), ‘’if you were to put your life-savings on one trade this year, what would it be?’’ asked Gavin. Ron suggests Bitcoin or gold, Dominic a major currency (not USD), and Gerry, shares in a pub – an answer enjoyed by the panel.

The meeting was rounded off with a brief comment from the UK president of ACI Financial Markets Association, Oliver Madden, who kindly said: ‘’again, this is one of the most enjoyable events of the year. I’m looking forward to next year’s event’’. STA members, do look out for the video of this moth’s meeting which lasts exactly one hour. Perfect timing!