Richard will describe his methodology. The central theme of his talk will be the focus on the technical factors which led to the conclusion that the American equity market had seen its nadir around mid-1982, anticipating by around six months the fundamental economic evidence that America was no longer in recession. He will then discuss how the precepts which underlie his work can be applied to the present conjunction of themes.

Despite the many excellent studies and oscillators available, for Paddy “market price” is the primary indicator. In his market analysis he gives significant weight to support and resistance levels and (to a lesser extent) trend lines, particularly in relation to identifying the strength of investor sentiment around these price levels. The behaviour (illustrated by the price action) around a level – whether it breaks or holds – can give a very good indication of how prices will act around that level in the future. He will use FX, commodities and stock index charts to demonstrate how he evaluates the significance of line breaks in his market analysis.

In 2000 Clive set up FuturesTechs, which has built up a solid subscriber base (mainly comprising of Day Traders) for its daily service, which now covers 28 markets. Many of these clients have also benefited from Clive’s lively training seminars, which he has also presented for the STA’s education programme.

In his few years as an active member of the STA he has often been asked who these short term traders are, how they trade, and how they use technical analysis. In this talk he will attempt to unveil some of these answers and give an insight into the technical methods employed by these active traders, who, as a group, account for a sizeable chunk of daily volumes on many of the world’s leading exchanges.

Making money in markets is somewhat easier when we can identify the big secular trends. Eoin will look at international markets and attempt to differentiate between what are likely to be the much larger secular trends and those where a medium-term cyclical move is taking place. To do this he will make extensive use of Fullermoney.com’s online Chart Library which has a number of long-term historical ratios not commonly found on other systems. He will outline his view of where markets are going in 2007 and identify risks which could add to future volatility.

Admitting that he does use Technical Analysis, albeit as the cadet branch of his input, Anthony has addressed the Society before. In his allotted span of some 40 minutes, he will outline his approach, and how and why Technical Analysis contributes to his decisions, particularly on Larger Capitalization stocks where the advantage of fundamental analysis is often lessened due to the sheer size and diversity of the companies as investments.

The Executive Committee thought this was an appropriate way to mark and celebrate the closing of the 20th Anniversary of the Society’s incorporation, from its previous form as ACTA.

Richard is not going to teach any ground breaking new techniques, as his approach can be regarded as very traditional, but will talk about how he successfully uses what he believes to be the three most important building blocks in any day to day analysis – Sentiment, Momentum and Trending, showing how very simple rules can be applied to markets. As well as highlighting his approach, Richard will also take a look at how these can be applied to the current outlook in Fixed Income, FX and Stock markets.

Aboudy started off working as a chartered accountant with Arthur Andersen, before trading his own account since the end of 2001. His talk is aimed at challenging traditional technical analysis and analysts who, in his opinion, spend too much time looking for “pretty” chart patterns rather than focus on what technical analysis is meant to be, which, according to him, is a tool to aid real-world trading. Aboudy would like to stimulate thought, reach into the spirit of technical analysis and open up new ideas and ways at analysing charts for real trading.

He will be discussing the rise in program trading and its effect on the technical analysis discipline. With the growing trend in machines rather than humans carrying out trading, questions will be raised on the use of conventional technical analysis and its relevance in the modern marketplace. Aboudy will be discussing his views on the future of technical analysis and his opinions on how as market technicians, we need to go back to the heart of technical analysis to help us face the future. To assist in this, Aboudy will be demonstrating VIA Trader as the first real time technical news service designed to provide a stream of valuable analysis and in depth commentary to allow for rapid assimilation of key market information.

Stuart has looked at many facets of technical analysis, but, on the whole, prefers the straightforward reading of price action via bar or line charts, and looking for trends and patterns in weekly, daily, hourly and tick bar charts. He uses a great deal of intuition, contrarian opinion and psychology, allied to the price action – essentially to keep it simple, and stick to the techniques that work for him as an individual. He will attempt to provide examples covering the main avenues.

John’s talk will focus on the current developments in emerging markets, which are providing plenty of textbook patterns. For those not following these markets closely, it is worth bearing in mind that they should not be considered as an homogeneous bloc, but are in different stages of development, and can show widely differing characteristics, the recent, fairly indiscriminate sell-off notwithstanding. As part of his theme, John will consider to what extent the old jibe is still true, “Emerging markets are those from which it is difficult to emerge!”

Most members will be familiar with the “Road Map”, his proprietary system for codifying the interaction between the various market and economic cycles. As a seasoned sailor, he is more qualified than most to stipulate, “Always look at the chart”. Whilst the Society has always adopted a purist attitude to performance claims in notices, his Road Map should be a much more reliable indicator of present position, direction and route in markets than some of the SatNav systems now on offer, judging by recent press comments!

Tim actively trades his own funds across equities, fixed income, commodities & foreign exchange. Building on the disciplines imparted by the classics, he uses only technical analysis, with a variety of methods. He will focus on his use of various DeMark Indicators: TD Setup, Sequential, Combo, Moving Average 1, and how he combines these indicators. He aims to provide examples from a range of markets.

Prior to joining HSBC in 1998, Charles was in the Army, which instilled many of the essential disciplines for successful and consistent fund management. Although Technical Analysis is normally associated with market timing and trading, in order to make it more relevant within fund management, the objectives need to be altered. Stock selection and asset allocation are more important than market timing, and Charles will argue that, contrary to popular belief, technical analysis serves the former better than the latter.

Obviously, the generation of returns above the index is needed to justify an active fund manager’s existence, and a technical fund cannot live in isolation from this fact, and hide behind absolute return or trading. Charles will discuss the investment process behind the HSBC Global Trend Fund, with insights into currency-adjusted price relative (CAPR), trend following, contrarian investing, asset allocation and risk management.

Tom leads a team of analysts in London and New York, and is responsible for the production of daily Technical Watch publications. Through the use of technical analysis and global spread relationships the Technical Watch publications present daily directional evaluations of Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange, and Equity futures and cash markets. Weekly technical publications include coverage of Asian capital markets, European Rates Weekly and the Global Futures & Options editions.

He aims to examine 2006 as a transition year for global fixed income markets that have been dominated by the bullish lower yield movement since 2000. Using correlation work, the 2000/2003 cyclical fixed income bull trends were primarily the products of the most severe equity setbacks since the early 1930’s. Higher yield corrections began in 2003, and the relationship between the current equity cycle and fixed income should decline by late 2006 early 2007.

Secular Exhaustion: Driven since 1981 in the US and early 1990’s in Europe, the consistent progress towards lower yields is reaching exhaustion. This has enormous consequences for yields over the next 2-10 years.

Mark will be talking about how the STA Diploma course – especially moving averages, sector and equity price/relative chart analysis – has helped his career progression, which is now geared toward the more dynamic hedge fund world. He will explain how he finds and trades high probability trades with high win/loss ratios, by using relative value in conjunction with technical analysis. Mark will give numerous examples of some of his recent trades and explain why it makes sense to focus on those sectors and stocks which are out- or underperforming the market.

Implied volatility and put-call ratios are the only exact measure for sentiment that everyone can access. Making simple assumptions on how market-makers and the crowd (retail and institutional) behave, it is possible to derive from implied volatility an excellent gauge of fear and greed. Combined with price analysis, it increases the probability of spotting medium term trend reversals. It also appears that implied volatility obeys Dow theory, and can be analyzed as an asset of its own, therefore calling for trend reversals in volatility.

Valérie will provide recent examples and will share her experience of the methodology’s strengths and weaknesses.