Tom leads a team of analysts in London and New York, and is responsible for the production of daily Technical Watch publications. Through the use of technical analysis and global spread relationships the Technical Watch publications present daily directional evaluations of Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange, and Equity futures and cash markets. Weekly technical publications include coverage of Asian capital markets, European Rates Weekly and the Global Futures & Options editions.

He aims to examine 2006 as a transition year for global fixed income markets that have been dominated by the bullish lower yield movement since 2000. Using correlation work, the 2000/2003 cyclical fixed income bull trends were primarily the products of the most severe equity setbacks since the early 1930’s. Higher yield corrections began in 2003, and the relationship between the current equity cycle and fixed income should decline by late 2006 early 2007.

Secular Exhaustion: Driven since 1981 in the US and early 1990’s in Europe, the consistent progress towards lower yields is reaching exhaustion. This has enormous consequences for yields over the next 2-10 years.

Mark will be talking about how the STA Diploma course – especially moving averages, sector and equity price/relative chart analysis – has helped his career progression, which is now geared toward the more dynamic hedge fund world. He will explain how he finds and trades high probability trades with high win/loss ratios, by using relative value in conjunction with technical analysis. Mark will give numerous examples of some of his recent trades and explain why it makes sense to focus on those sectors and stocks which are out- or underperforming the market.

Implied volatility and put-call ratios are the only exact measure for sentiment that everyone can access. Making simple assumptions on how market-makers and the crowd (retail and institutional) behave, it is possible to derive from implied volatility an excellent gauge of fear and greed. Combined with price analysis, it increases the probability of spotting medium term trend reversals. It also appears that implied volatility obeys Dow theory, and can be analyzed as an asset of its own, therefore calling for trend reversals in volatility.

Valérie will provide recent examples and will share her experience of the methodology’s strengths and weaknesses.

Bill will not discuss the minutiae of TA very much, but, in his allotted span of 30 minutes, share some insights into his long and colourful career as a trader, broker and market journalist, aka market wisdom.

David will discuss his approach to analysing markets, with a particular focus on the application of Fibonacci. He will also look at the current outlook for global fixed income markets.

Kevin will discuss the use of volatility bands as an adaptive tool to gauge the phase of the market. He will then outline a way to adjust oscillators using volatility, to enhance trading performance. Using these measures, he will conclude by focusing on some current observations.

Tom will examine the market climate, and use technical analysis to discuss technical scenarios, by way of demonstrating the “rule of confirmation”. He will look at cross markets to formulate trading strategy. For example, looking at the UK interest rate cycle, and how that impacts on the yield curve and resulting fly trading activity. Tom will show how he uses various chart types – candles, bar & line – to confirm signals. He also looks at calendar and yield spread differentials, and in some instances applies objective tools like moving averages and m/a systems, as well as momentum tools.

Jeff will adapt his normal monthly review to cover such international markets, sectors, bonds, commodities and currencies as can be shown within his allotted span of 30 minutes. He will focus mainly on what is hot, and to a lesser extent on what is not.

David will focus on the latest findings on Ichimoku (Cloud) Charts, which were developed in Japan in the late 1960s, making them one of the most recent developments in Technical Analysis. Although there is still remarkably little written material available on the subject, the technique is becoming more widely followed in western markets. The Ichimoku session was one of the best acclaimed presentations at the Madrid IFTA Conference. David’s presentation follows on from that with the latest findings and observations.

David will focus on his theories regarding the behavioural patterns of markets, their underlying psychological associations and the harnessing of internal feelings as one trades the market patterns. He will use recent examples to illustrate his thoughts, and make several key market predictions. He aims to cover as wide a range of markets as possible, including gold, oil, the dollar and US equities.

Bill will take as his starting point his recent lecture for the Diploma Course and develop the rather neglected theme of Dow Theory as far his allotted span permits.

The soft commodities are particularly prone to swings on rumour, political events and weather, making careful analysis of the charts for risk/reward opportunities an essential part of any trading plan. During her talk, Elizabeth will cover the background fundamentals of the marketplace, and how to interpret the charts with that knowledge.

After starting with charts of essential items like Gold, Oil and a few Currencies, he will show charts of the Major Indices before moving on to highlight the Best and Worst from the FTSE 100 list. He will conclude with a selection of the most bullish and promising charts in the FTSE250 and the FTSE SmallCap indices. The charts will be selected on the morning of the 12th January and, hopefully, there will be a few topical messages or themes at the start of 2005.

Using the same skills which consistently beat fund managers, a mixture of technicals (trend following, momentum, statistical) and fundamentals Alpesh will discuss his favourite UK and global stocks, including ADRs (especially Brazilian, Indian, Chinese and Russian stocks), and Exchange Traded Funds for 2005. Also, where he sees the major indices going. Keeping with the jovial Christmas spirit, he will also host “Who wants to be a “TA” Millionaire”, and provide “alternative” top trader advice.

Basically, David will reprise his talk of two years ago, with an emphasis on the advances in the technology/cost equation and systems developed since then. He will focus on the software solutions available to professional practitioners and private investors alike. If time allows he will look at some of the more modern trading technologies available today for the analysis of time series data. Unlike the uncertain background of two years ago, markets and job prospects seem more settled. That said, members should need no reminder that markets can and do turn on a sixpence, (and if they do, they are likely to lose money), so prospects may change…