On Thursday 11 October, we are delighted that our guest speaker will be Dr Van Tharp. Please note that the event is taking place at One America Square rather than the usual CISI offices, and that it is being held on a THURSDAY rather than the usual Tuesday.

Jointly organised with the Chartered Alterntive Investment Analyst (CAIA) Association, come join our exclusive live interview about “Trading Beyond the Matrix” with the world’s top trading pschologist, Dr Tharp.  Key topics include Dr Tharp’s ‘road to transformation’ and what he learned from modelling over 5,000 traders and investors.

The interview will be hosted by Ron William who serves as board member to the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA).

All too often a Technician’s first foray into being quantitative is performing a back test. Statistically, this is one of the worst places to start a quantitative process. A back test that is performed too early is based on many false assumptions and compounds many errors into the process. The result is that the back test returns are rarely repeatable in real life. In this presentation, Mathew will be explaining what these errors are, how we can avoid them (regardless of what tools you use), and reveal a new Monte Carlo method he developed which allows us to review a valid p-score for our models no matter if they are long term trend following or short term mean reversion strategies. Mathew will go on to explain how as Technicians there is a process that we can follow to rigorously test quantitative ideas.

For any Analyst who wants to research new ideas, or be able to present ideas that can stand up to rigorous quantitative scrutiny, this presentation will help you to see that not only is a quantitative approach is achievable, but as Technical Analysts, we are in the best position to drive advanced quantitative models.

The July meeting will see STA Fellow, Tony Plummer FSTA, talk on his new book The Life Cycle Hypothesis, which builds on the findings of Tony’s previous book, The Law of Vibration.

In 2007, the Chairwoman of Qantas, Mrs Margaret Jackson, was supportive of a takeover bid for Qantas at $5.45 per share. With acceptances of the offer waning, Mrs Jackson told the Australian Financial Review regarding the impending withdrawal of the bid, “If anyone thinks this will happen without affecting the (share) price then they have a mental problem with how the market works.” She received sharp criticism for her comments, especially from the mental health community. In addition, she was accused of underestimating the abilities of the shareholder, many of which were retail investors, to make a rational decision. By late 2013, Qantas (QAN) shares hit a record low of 96 cents.

Had Mrs Jackson suggested that those shareholders who failed to accept the takeover offer were subject to several cognitive biases including the Status Quo Bias, and the Endowment Effect, she may have escaped the criticism, even if few people understood what she was referring to.

Sadly, the term “Mental” has been hijacked in popular parlance to represent a slur on a person’s character, and is short for mentally ill. However, its original meaning refers to things of the mind, specifically intellectual (cognitive) and emotional.

During this session, Paul will demonstrate that all aspects of trading can be affected by cognitive biases in two key parts.

• How we trade; including mechanical versus discretionary trading, decision making and risk management.
• Why and what markets we trade, which trading platform / software we use, which instruments we trade with, which broker we use, and our approach to financial education and training.

Key to the presentation will be an attempt to model the cognitive biases together to demonstrate those we are susceptible to at each stage of the trade, rather than viewing them as distinct phenomenon as is typically the case.

Of course, options trading will be a key part of the discussion. Paul will suggest that the first trade any new trader should make is a long call.

Paul will demonstrate to the audience that trading is completely mental! Be prepared for a fun, interactive and informative session.

Jesse Livermore Boy Plunger is Tom’s first financial book and came about as a result of his admiration of Jesse Livermore and his trading methods over 20 years. The book was over 10 years in the planning as Tom and his close associate, David Peett, also a Livermore disciple, waited for Livermore’s own anonymous biography, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator,  to go out of copyright. Boy Plunger, which told the whole story of the life of Jesse Livermore in intimate detail, warts and all, was finally published in 2014. It has since sold steadily since in Britain and America. It is currently being licensed in most countries of the world for translation including China. Tom believes it will sell forever and many future generations of financiers, traders and analysts will want to read about the incredible life of Jesse Livermore.

In this special “Fireside Chat”, Charles Newsome MSTA, Investec Wealth & Investment, will interview Tom about Jesse Livermore in what promises to be a very revealing session!

In this special presentation, veteran trader and leading educator Dan Gramza president of Gramza Capital Management, Inc. and dangramza.com will share with you his proprietary strategy for trading Behavioural Japanese Candle charts.  His simplified approach will provide clarity to how you look at the markets. Dan will apply his unique way of trading current markets.  He will explore: What happened? Where are we now? Where are we going?  He will discuss these issues fundamentally and technically as he examines stock-indexes, FX, interest rate, metals, energy, bitcoin and markets identified by the participants.

The STA meeting programme will start the year with an interactive review of last year and outlook for 2018. Where are the key trends going? Which sectors look set to provide the best returns? Essential predictions and analysis for the up and coming year.

The panel will be chaired by Nicole Elliott MSTA, known to many of you as the writer of the STA Blog and twitter feed. A graduate of the London School of Economics and Political Science (BSc Social Psychology) Nicole has worked in banks in the City of London for the last 30 years. Our panel of speakers includes:

The STA Annual General Meeting and  Christmas Party will be held on Tuesday 12 December at the British Bankers’ Association.

The STA November monthly meeting will be a special MiFID II panel debate with the following experts:

The ability to detect market reversals in a timely manner has become a key task for traders and analysts. Inverse-Logic Spectral Analysis (ILSA) takes it to the next level by overcoming limitations of traditional methods. It was developed by the speaker for the purpose of cycle detection in a volatile environment and is currently pending patent (No GB1709967.2).

ILSA operates with input data of any length, even shorter than the cycle itself. It detects market cycles earlier than conventional methods (based on Fourier or Hilbert transform), and generates in-phase functions, which can used as oscillators or trading signals with virtually no lag.

Practical results demonstrate fast and accurate cycle detection and show cyclical market reversals forecasted months before they occur. The performance of a simple trading model using ILSA for daily GBP/USD trading is presented for a 27-year period, showing a robust P/L growth with the Sharpe ratio of 2.5.

Trevor Neil will present the VIX Pop Trading Method. This method uses spikes in the VIX to generate buys in the S&P. While this is a known trading method, but the practical problem is defining the VIX spike itself. Trevor uses two timeframe Bollinger Bands and a reversal trigger. It is a system and has a trailing exit. The full system testing results will be shown. The method was created using modern development and testing software. This method with these parameters was first shown at the 2015 IFTA conference. We can see the results at the time. We can now do a true walk forward test and study the performance since then and determine if it is genuinely a robust method. All rules and code will be made available to those interested.

The evening started with the presentation of STA Diploma certificates to the latest cohort of successful candidates. Only some of the many who studied were able to be there in person as they live far away abroad or because of prior commitments, but we were delighted to welcome those that could make it. The ceremony was followed by a light-hearted talk by Stephen Hoad before members mingled during the summer drinks reception.

group1

group2

IMG_2101

IMG_2105

IMG_2109

IMG_2110

IMG_2112

IMG_2113

IMG_2118

Rajan will speak on Volume Profile and Value.