Diploma certificates were presented to newly qualified MSTA by STA chairman Axel Rudolph at a very well attended Summer Party held at Bloombergs offices in London. We are most grateful to Bloomberg for their generous hospitality and the very well received trading game that followed.

Four candidates gained a distinction: Craig Erlam, Joshua Mahony, Marcin Narloch and Arjan Shah.

Congratulations to them, and to all our new MSTAs.

In his talk Ghassan will focus on the fact that most hedge funds are run by “Quants” with the largest bets placed using options. The fact that market neutral strategies remain the most predominant strategies in hedge funds highlights the strong belief of “Random Walk”. Using Technical Analysis it is possible to highlight pricing anomalies especially in low delta options. Delta trading and dynamic hedging is most suited to technical analysts, yet very little is done by them. Moving price pattern recognition to a quantitative system may be the first step in the right direction, as it allows the “Quant” to relate better and understand more the technical analyst’s point of view.” In Ghassan’s opinion something needs to change dramatically in the TA approach to allow non-TA (Quants) to understand what technical analysts do.

In the talk Steve Griffiths outlined his unique “Isolation Approach” to Elliott wave analysis and showed how this resolves the problems and shortfalls of more traditional forms of Elliott wave analysis. Combined with Risk Control and Position Sizing this strategy can be applied to any liquid market, including Stocks, Forex and Futures. Steve also touched on his favourite trade that he has nicknamed the “Holy Grail” because it allows the trader to take advantage of the strongest and longest of all the Elliott Wave swings, the Wave (3).

Oliver will be discussing the properties of different measures of volatility and how these can be exploited and modified to produce innovative technical indicators and combined to form powerful strategies. One example that he will demonstrate is his own Volstall indicator, designed to anticipate reversals by identifying trend deceleration.

Technicians have a long-held advantage of being able to look beyond just one asset class with more ease than fundamental analysts do. Indeed, over the past several years, it has been essential that analysts are able to have a view on not just their own area of responsibility but on the core drivers from a range of different markets, all of which can sometimes have a direct impact on seemingly unrelated trades and recommendations. David highlights how Credit Suisse Research pulls all the different asset markets together, the approach and methodology it uses, as well as its current views.

Thierry believes that the long term trend in the stock market is driven by fundamentals but in the short term, the stock market is driven by sentiment. He will demonstrate how sentiment can be used to forecast the short term direction of the stock market. It is not clear why sentiment changes but one early clue can be found in the behaviour of investors. Sentiment will often change when prices no longer respond to the news. For example when the market fails to rally on good news or when it fails to decline on bad news. His e-Yield Sentiment Indicator (ESI) measures this.

The 2008-09 economic debacle left fundamental analysts struggling to find answers. At the same time, technical analysis flourished, as uncertain investors began to question the status quo. Fast forward five years, and the market’s recovery has emboldened the fundamentalists once again, who are back to using the same flawed logic that previously destroyed centuries-old enterprises. But that complacency is nearing an end. Employing the Elliott wave model of financial price movement and socionomic principles, analyst Brian Whitmer will clarify the market’s current juncture, identifying the key opportunities and major pitfalls facing investors over the coming year.

Richard’s talk will give an introduction to hedge ratio analysis for index options and futures with charts detailing the subsequent dynamic delta hedging and how it affects the leading benchmark indices.

Linda’s talk will explain the way she quantifies market structure and how she then uses this in her trading models. One of her favourite projects in the past 6 years was modelling instances where there was ‘persistency of trend’ or what she calls, “extended runs”. The frequency of occurrence of these trends and the consistency of the statistics behind them is surprising. Linda will review some of the more common technical conditions or patterns that lead to “extended runs”, and explain the difference in her experience, between modelling price behaviour and actually trading.

This exciting and fresh presentation will explore the true nature of financial markets and how they evolve through a stochastic, fractal process of expansion and contraction. Supported by a variety of macro to micro charts from decade long to intraday futures data.

In over 30 years of practicing technical analysis a great deal has changed. The talk will challenge some of the conventional thinking and bring old and new ideas together. It will look at some of the challenges that traders and analysts face with a final look at what is happening in global financial markets.

Mathew and Market Analyst are now on the cutting edge, providing tools and techniques never seen before in the financial industry. New innovations in 3D models and multi-touch interaction will ensure that Market Analyst will be a driving force in shaping Technical Analysis in the future.

Throughout the whole of Mathew’s career, he has spent a considerable amount of time looking at traditional Technical Analysis techniques in a different way. In this presentation he will cover the mechanics behind how he has taken the tried and true Market Profile and turned it into a momentum based indicator. The rationale behind the development of this technique could be applied to many other techniques in the future.

Tony Plummer will address the subject matter of his new book – The Law of Vibration: The Revelation of William D Gann.

The book has been more than 20 years in the making, and it reveals the extraordinary pattern of oscillation that Mr Gann hid in “The Tunnel Thru The Air”. The pattern has a long – and secret – history, and is central to a general ‘law’ of vibration that may well permeate the universe. This law directs the processes of change in collective human behaviour and can be used to anticipate movements in financial markets, to forecast trends in economic activity, and to judge the validity (or otherwise) of economic policy initiatives. The pattern associated with the law of vibration is objective, verifiable, and accurate. It validates the assumptions that underlie technical analysis and it is likely to find applications in a whole range of scientific disciplines.

The presentation will focus on the behavioural aspects of trading and markets, looking at the emergence of Behavioural Finance and also Neuroeconomics. It will also look at how and why they are relevant for Technical analysis, and how they can add a new perspective and deeper understanding to a technical analyst’s work.