January 2024 Panel Debate: Fundamental vs Technical Perspectives Markets Outlook with a FX Focus
The evening of the 9th January, the second Tuesday of the month when all STA monthly meetings are held, we hosted a panel debate jointly with ACI UK and The Broker Club. A good turnout at our usual venue, One Moorgate Place, London EC2R 6EA. Our chairman Eddie Tofpik kicked things off by awarding Fellowships (FSTA) to Richard Adcock and Murray Gunn (one of the panellists). Photos with framed certificates and clapping all round
Moderator Sam Horowitz, currently at CMC Markets and an ACI UK Executive Committee member, reminded us that the meeting was being held under Chatham House rules; views expressed by the speakers could not be disseminated or attributed.
Up first was Audrey Childe-Freeman, chief G10 FX strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. An experienced FX analyst and commentator, she is very much in the fundamental camp specialising in macroeconomics and central banks. Unsurprisingly her outlook focused on the outlook for interest rates and interest rate differentials.
Next was Murray Gunn, Head of Global Research at Elliott Wave International. He is a technical analyst through and through and a key member of the STA having started the Scottish Chapter over 20 years ago and serving on the STA board a few times. His main focus was on major equity indices, with a very long term super-cycle focus. He reminded us that many stocks are way down from where they were 15 to 35 years ago. He believes indices measure social mood, so it’s hardly surprising that Chinese stocks are in an extreme negative phase.
Last but not least was Trevor Neil FSTA who reminded us that his focus is short term, the trades and trends he looks at use daily and weekly candles. While his examples covered foreign exchange, he decided to teach us how to use Relative Rotation Graphs, a concept jointly promoted with Julius de Kempenaer. He reminded us that ‘’all currencies are ratios’’ and that they move with the ‘’tide, in waves and wavelets’’.
A few brief words from Hugh Whelan of ACI UK, drinks and networking after audience questions. All in all a good start to the year.
Tags: equity indices, forecasts, FX, US dollar
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